The barrage begins

 

Bombs on Libya

The barrage begins

Mar 20th 2011, 11:42 by M.S.

 

THE FIRST stage of the “multiphase” Operation Odyssey Dawn may already be over. At 19.00 GMT on Saturday evening, American and British naval vessels launched a co-ordinated Tomahawk cruise missile attack on Libyan air-defence systems. At least 110 missiles struck at 20 command and control sites that had been targeted earlier in the week by satellites and aerial-surveillance missions conducted by American and British aircraft. There were also unconfirmed reports of American B-2 “stealth” bombers hitting a major Libyan airfield.

According to allied military sources, the strikes “severely disabled” the Libyan regime’s ability both to “see” coalition aircraft entering Libyan airspace and maintain effective command and control over the country’s integrated air defence systems, which include nearly 100 Mig-25s and 15 Mirage F-1s and a huge arsenal of Russian surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). A bomb-damage assessment is now underway to determine whether more attacks are needed to degrade Muammar Qaddafi’s air defences further before enforcement of the UN-mandated no-fly zone can begin in relative safety. A second phase is likely to begin later on Sunday with coalition aircraft (including 16 British GR4 Tornados, Rafales from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle at Toulon and F-18s from the USS Enterprise in the Red Sea) launching attacks with anti-radiation missiles that lock on to and destroy enemy radar systems.

 

Just over two hours before the main assault began, French Rafale (pictured) and Mirage 2000 fighters went into action over Benghazi. As international leaders met in Paris to agree the outline of the UN-backed military campaign, anxiety had grown over the threat to Libya’s second-biggest city. The ceasefire declared by the Qaddafi regime on Friday had been exposed as a ruse, as loyalist forces sped towards the rebels’ stronghold, beginning a major tank and artillery bombardment early on Saturday, while infiltrating snipers into central areas of the city.

The French mission, which deployed 20 aircraft including aerial refuelling tankers and airborne command and control planes, was an attempt (a little belated according to some military observers) to prevent Colonel Qaddafi establishing a fait accompli in Benghazi before the allies had got their act together. By preventing the regime from using its airpower effectively and suppressing for a time the artillery bombardment, the French brought some relief to the beleaguered city, but by not striking earlier, the allies have made things more difficult both for themselves and the civilian population they are trying to protect. Unless the Qaddafi forces withdraw, hitting them rather than the rebels resisting them will be difficult, while the risks of collateral damage if the fighting spreads within Benghazi will be high.

The pattern seems set for the next two or three days. As more allied forces arrive in the theatre of operations—Danish and Canadian jets have landed at the American airbase at Sigonella in Sicily or are on their way and fighter aircraft from Spain, Qatar and the UAE have been promised—and as the tricky technical job of co-ordinating the participating air forces progresses, the no-fly zone will become increasingly effective. A naval blockade will also come into force. Ground attacks on the Libyan regime’s armour, artillery, rocket launchers and mechanised infantry in both the east and west of the country seem certain to intensify if Colonel Qaddafi insists on carrying on the fight. A major uncertainty is whether his forces will continue to obey his orders if they start to believe the game is up. The 20,000 well-trained tribal paramilitary forces that the Colonel most relies on may feel they have no alternative. But the mercenaries he employs may think differently: they are paid to fight, but not to the death. 

 

Although the Americans appear to be reluctantly leading the operation at the moment through Admiral Samuel Locklear, the commander of the Allied Joint Force based in Naples, there is talk of mission leadership being handed over to either Britain or France once the first phases are over. Some tricky issues are coming up fast.

 

The UN resolution appears to exclude the use of foreign ground forces in Libya, but if strikes on the regime's ground forces are to be fully effective (and less likely to hit the wrong targets), air forces will need specialised ground spotters to guide them. Relying on intelligence from the rebels will not give allied pilots the kind of real-time situational awareness that they will want. Secondly, the coalition does not yet have a declared policy on what it will do to support rebel counter-attacks. Regime change is a hope, rather than an aim of the operation. But at some stage, the distinction is likely to become blurred between protecting civilians from Colonel Qaddafi and effectively fighting for (and perhaps arming) one side in a Libyan civil war.

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/clausewitz/2011/03/bombs_libya