From sunshiners to hardliners

 

 

North Korea’s belligerence stiffens the South’s spine

Tensions on the Korean peninsula

Dec 9th 2010 | SEOUL | from PRINT EDITION

 

A PHOTOGRAPH of Chung Ok-im above her desk shows the most vocal hawk within the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) firing a pistol. Ask her what the target was and she says without batting an eyelid: Kim Jong Il.

 

A few weeks ago, many leftish South Koreans would have cringed at that reminder of the conservative GNP’s long-standing hatred toward North Korea’s ruler and his regime. Even after the government of President Lee Myung-bak (pictured above) demonstrated that North Korea torpedoed a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, in March, killing 46 sailors, at least a third of the country disbelieved the evidence.

 

But attitudes have hardened considerably since North Korea launched an artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong island on November 23rd, killing two South Korean marines and two civilians. For the first time, young South Koreans witnessed what they saw as an act of war on their turf. Youths who had been reluctant to sign up for compulsory military service after the Cheonan sinking are now more eager. The opposition Democratic Party, which had criticised President Lee for ending the “sunshine policy” of talks with North Korea, now blames him for not hitting back hard enough. The GNP, too, is toughening its rhetoric.

 

Many in the South were appalled that their country fired only 80 shells back at the North, in response to 170 fired at them. Some even argue that the United States, which keeps 28,500 troops in the country, should deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the South as a deterrent. Ms Chung is one of them, though she knows this could be incendiary.

 

President Lee, whose high popularity ratings were dented by the attack, is now enjoying a rebound. He has appointed a new defence minister, Kim Kwan-jin, a veteran field commander. Mr Kim has accused the armed forces of “bureaucratic” complacency and raised the prospect of air strikes in response to any future North Korean artillery attacks. The South Korean and American armed forces are thought to be discussing new rules of engagement to allow this. This week, despite typical North Korean bluster, the South’s navy held “live-fire” exercises around the peninsula—though it avoided Yeonpyeong.

 

Many in the government believe that Kim Jong Il wants to make his anointed son and heir, Kim Jong Un, into a military hero and distract the country from the regime’s economic failures. (There are reports that the 20-something military neophyte has already been cast as a “genius” in the field of artillery.) The South fears more provocations in coming months, worrying especially that Seoul is within easy striking distance of the North’s missiles. The hope is that the Kim family is not desperate enough to risk all-out war.

 

For all the sinew-stiffening at home, international pressure remains the preferred means for bringing Pyongyang to order. China, the regime’s main backer, is best placed to apply it but appears reluctant. on December 5th President Barack Obama spent half an hour on the phone to China’s President Hu Jintao trying to persuade him to get tougher. on December 8th Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, accused China of failing to use its clout.

 

China frets that pressure will only make matters worse. But America and its allies believe that displaying solidarity against the North is crucial. on December 6th the diplomatic leaders of America, Japan and South Korea met in Washington, DC, demonstrating what Hillary Clinton called “a unified position” on the North. Admiral Mullen expressed support for Japanese participation in American and South Korean military exercises in the area. The allies have roundly rejected China’s repeated calls for six-party talks to ease the tensions. China’s case has been weakened not just by the attack, but by North Korea’s unveiling of a uranium-enrichment facility that it has built despite UN sanctions.

 

Ironically, the North’s muscle-flexing occurred just as a view was emerging in South Korea and elsewhere that it might be time to consider re-engaging Pyongyang. Now there is no mood for dialogue. Experts say President Lee will be under pressure to stand tough throughout his final two years in office.

 

So far he has done a credible job of bolstering support for his North Korea policy while not escalating the conflict. But if there is another attack and he does not retaliate forcefully, even supporters like Ms Chung will not forgive him. Southern vengefulness could make the peninsula an even more dangerous place.

 

from PRINT EDITION | Asia

 

 

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