North and South Korea
Sanctions, war-games and diplomatic pressure raise the stakes
Jul 22nd 2010 | seoul
FOR James Clapper, the man named to lead America’s vast intelligence system, North Korea’s sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean corvette, may mark the start of a “dangerous new period” in which the North seeks to mount “direct attacks” on the South. As military intelligence chief in South Korea and the Pacific region in the 1980s, he told senators in a letter, it was reminiscent of the 1987 bombing of Korean Airlines Flight 858 that killed 115 people. The threat from North Korean military forces, moreover, “cannot be taken lightly”.
Much of the world does not share this grim view, or at least seems reluctant to do much about the killing of 46 South Korean sailors. A recent UN Security Council statement was underwhelming; it decried the attack but, mainly due to China’s objections, did not name North Korea as the culprit. Having adopted a firm but measured stance against North Korea, the lack of international solidarity is a disappointment for President Lee Myung-bak, so much so that some countrymen have taken to speculating about his political future.
It has fallen to America to shore him up, reassure South Koreans and send a stern warning to the North’s president, Kim Jong Il. Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, and Robert Gates, its defence secretary, made an unusual joint visit to the demilitarised zone that has divided the peninsula since 1953, noting that the two sides of the thin line were “worlds apart”. They drew a delicate diplomatic line, too: America announced new sanctions against the North, warned of “serious consequences” if it carried out another attack, and pressed on with large military exercises with the South. At the same time, Mrs Clinton said America was open to dialogue, peaceful relations and economic aid for the North if it changed its ways and took “irreversible steps” to give up nuclear weapons.
The sanctions mainly target foreign banks that deal with companies suspected of facilitating North Korean arms deals, but appear to be more symbolic than practical. Of greater interest are the military exercises between the American and South Korean navies—long planned, but frequently delayed—that will take place this weekend. They involve 200 aircraft and 20 ships, including the USS George Washington, an aircraft-carrier. The war-games were at first planned for the Yellow Sea between Korea and China, but have been moved to the Sea of Japan (East Sea), after loud Chinese protests. China may no longer be quite “as close as lips and teeth” to North Korea, as Mao Zedong once put it, but it is still reluctant to allow any measures to be taken against its recalcitrant neighbour.
The South Korean ministry of defence, however, has stated that it may well conduct future joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea, opening up the possibility of strained relations with Beijing. In a strongly worded statement, Qin Gang, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, expressed opposition to forces “coming to the Yellow Sea and other waters near China to engage in activities that affect China’s security interests”. It cannot be a coincidence that Chinese armed forces themselves have also recently conducted similar exercises in the same area. This is a worrying period indeed.