Drawing the line

Iran's upheaval

Drawing the line

Jun 19th 2009

From Economist.com

 

Iran's supreme leader stands staunchly by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

“SOME supporters of candidates should know that the Islamic Republic would not cheat and would not betray the votes of the people.” The crowds of people cramming Tehran University cheered and raised their fists in support at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s words. “The legal mechanism for elections would not allow any cheating.”

 

 

 

In his speech on Friday June 19th, Iran’s supreme leader implacably denied that the presidential election had been rigged, or that there had been serious errors in the result. Mr Khamenei called for protests, which have wracked Iran all week, to halt, with veiled threats of what would ensue if they did not. He said in no uncertain terms that elections must be decided at the ballot box, not on the streets, and that the (almost entirely peaceful) crowds “will be responsible for bloodshed and chaos” if they went on protesting.

Though he chided Mr Ahmadinejad implicitly for accusing Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an ex-president and a powerbroker in Iran, so openly of corruption, he made clear his support for Mr Ahmadinejad, stressing how closely their points of view coincided. Plenty of the traditional bugbears came out in Mr Khamenei’s speech: Zionist plots, foreign spies, America and especially Britain. He ended by saying that he was ready to give his life for Islam and the revolution. His listeners roared their approval, chanting that they were ready to give their lives for him.

The speech had no hint of conciliation. No doubt Mr Khamenei remembers the shah’s disastrous attempts at appeasement in 1979. Though some had hoped that the hundreds of thousands of protesters who have flooded the streets of Iran over the past week might have forced him to change his mind, he could not have taken a much harder line.

What comes next is uncertain. After Mr Khamenei’s fiery denial of major irregularities, it seems unlikely that the Guardian Council, an appointed committee that will meet on Saturday to discuss allegations of vote-rigging, will contest the results in any meaningful way. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the leader of the council, is a strong supporter of Mr Ahmadinejad and has already backed his victory.

The authorities have banned a march planned for Saturday June 20th. But protesters have been ignoring orders to this effect all week. If Saturday’s protest goes ahead, especially if on the scale of those earlier this week, it will represent a significant challenge to Mr Khamenei. These protests are different to those of 1978 and 1979: people are not calling for a complete overthrow of the entire political system. The protestors have no charismatic leader like 1979’s Ayatollah Khomeini, and Messrs Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have more popular backing than the shah did in his era. But it is clear that the Islamic Republic is facing an unprecedented crisis of authority and legitimacy.

Mr Mousavi’s situation is becoming increasingly difficult. An almost accidental opposition leader, he has shown unexpected mettle in the face of the authorities’ threats. But if he continues to contest the election and side with the protesters, he runs the risk of being labelled a counter-revolutionary. And rumours are still flying about Mr Rafsanjani’s whereabouts. Many believe that he in Qom, the heart of the clerical establishment, trying to convene a meeting of the Assembly of Experts (the body that chooses the supreme leader) to pressure Mr Khamenei. The battle over the election has given him an opportunity to exploit long-standing rivalries with both Mr Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad. Some reformists among the clergy have strongly supported Mr Mousavi and denounced the election, but others remain firmly on the side of the supreme leader.

Questions are being raised about the loyalty of the Revolutionary Guards. Though they are generally seen as backing Mr Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad, there are divisions within them (Mohsen Rezai, another defeated presidential candidate complaining of the results, is a former guardsman himself, and has considerable support among them.) If ordered to attack the protesters, who include women and children, it is hard to predict what their response will be. Some of the users of Twitter, which protesters have used to share short messages amongst themselves, have urged marchers to carry the Koran, citing its verses about bringing peace.

Do the authorities dare beat them down? Serious bloodshed is looking increasingly likely. The regime has might on its side. It has already killed dozens, say the opposition (and seven, says the leadership). It may go still further to protect the status quo. But it is impossible to predict whether that will crush its opponents or stir them up still further. Iranian politics, ever unpredictable, now holds the entire world’s attention.